Wii only a passing fad?

This is something I've been wondering for a long time too. And so many people here thought it was crazy. But really, where does the Wii go? It doesn't really have direction that's any good, and seems very disorganized. Sure you have the Nintendo characters so you can count of seeing Zelda, Metroid, Mario, Mario Kart, probably StarFox, probably Kirby, etc. But um, most consoles actually have games produced by different companies.

People now are speculating that Nintendo will again end up in 3rd place, though it could still be a fairly profitable third place. Nintendo has some great IPs, but they really lost it on console design after the SNES. Though I'll give them the GBA, it was good.

It will be a passing fad if game developers don't make some decent games. But they seem to be content with rushing games out the door or making sloppy ports. :shrug:

btw, here's me list of games I want to try or buy:
Mario Galaxy (duh)
SSBB (duh again)
Tomb Raider Anniversary
DBZ Tenchaichi 3
RE Umbrella Chronicles
Dewey's Adventure
Zack & Wiki
Rayman Raving Rabbids 2
Fire Emblem
No More Heroes
Dragon Quest Swords
FF Chronicles
Trauma Center New Blood
Wii Fit
de Blob

There's probably newer games that have been announced since I made that list. Me, I have enough to play right now - I'm still trying to catch up on my portable ones - and there are enough Wii games scheduled to keep me happy.

The system isn't even a year old and is already doing better than the Gamecube. It's too early to tell. It's a lot like the Nintendo DS, where its underpowered compared to the competition, and there weren't many good games at the beginning. It was Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow in the following fall that made owning a DS worth it to me, since I hadn't touched it much since launch.

Developers just need to make better games, and the industry in Japan is already shifting, such as the announcement of Monster Hunter 3 coming to Wii instead of PS3. They're playing catchup now.

I don't think most gamers would get by just owning a Wii this generation. I haven't been using my Wii traditionally at all except for a few virtual console games, but some of that is due to my current gaming habits. I've passed on Metroid Prime 3 so far because I didn't get through Metroid Prime 2 yet. Super Mario Galaxy will probably be the next Wii game I play, and I'm really looking forward to that one.

I doubt the wii is just going to end up as gamecube 2.0. It's sold better than the PS3 and the Xbox 360. Just watch and you'll see. (If the wii sales go down a lot, please nobody quote that.)

Mak-X wrote:I've passed on Metroid Prime 3 so far because I didn't get through Metroid Prime 2 yet. Super Mario Galaxy will probably be the next Wii game I play, and I'm really looking forward to that one.

You should definitely finish MP2 so you can play MP3, it's really good.

I agree with your point about the DS, but I look at the DS release schedule and all I see is kids games (just how it's been for GBA over the past few years), and not many games that interest me.

I think there's some merit to the argument that it will be a fad. Nintendo is relying on only it's own releases, which are starting to dwindle in quality as well. Yes, they are appealing to the mass market, but the mass market has a short attention span. Metroid, Twilight Princess, Phantom Hourglass, none of them held my interest. I fear that Mario is going down the same path, and Mario Kart looks a long way off (the new screen shots look terrible).

Oh, by the way, PSP managed to outsell the DS last month in Japan. Say what?

I'm kind of feeling the same way about the Wii myself. There really haven't been enough games to warrant me buying one just yet. I mean, I'm interested in Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn, Metroid Prime 3, and (maybe) Super Mario Galaxy. But considering how much of a letdown Twilight Princess was, I'm a little wary about Nintendo's first-party titles now. :/

One thing that bugs me about developers and the Wii is that they seem to have some sort of gimmick syndrome. Just because you can do something, doesn't mean you should. Maybe I'm old-fashioned, but I don't like the idea of controlling my character with a pointer. This is the main reason why I didn't pick up Phantom Hourglass. I want to control Link myself, not give him directions on where to go.

But the biggest thing of all, is how the majority of the games seem to be short and lacking substance. Sure, I can go and get Wii Sports. But that will probably only entertain me for 5 hours at most. Any other game that got good ratings I've played on their original systems.

If I look at my Gamecube collection, there's a good amount of gems in there. So it's not like Nintendo was always like this.

Yeah, I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the Wii was another "only the first-party titles are worth it" system... on the other hand, it's cheap, so I don't mind paying for it to use alongside the Xbox 360. Of course, I also bought an Xbox for the sole purpose of playing two games (Ninja Gaiden and Steel Battalion), so maybe I'm not the best benchmark for this sort of thing.

Yoshiman wrote:This is the main reason why I didn't pick up Phantom Hourglass. I want to control Link myself, not give him directions on where to go.

I was skeptical about controlling Link (and everything in the game) with a stylus, but I don't know how I'll go back to playing Zelda with a d-pad. It really feels like you are controlling Link. A lot of the stuff you may read about in the game sounds gimicky, but it's actually a lot of fun - the item usage, the sailing, the salvaging and fishing mini games, etc, it's all great. You really should at least borrow it from someone to check it out.

Also for those worried about length, don't be. It's a good length for a handheld.

Orion wrote:I think there's some merit to the argument that it will be a fad. Nintendo is relying on only it's own releases, which are starting to dwindle in quality as well. Yes, they are appealing to the mass market, but the mass market has a short attention span. Metroid, Twilight Princess, Phantom Hourglass, none of them held my interest. I fear that Mario is going down the same path, and Mario Kart looks a long way off (the new screen shots look terrible).

You talk like Nintendo has some kind of control over other companies and the games they put out. Nintendo is working with developers considerably more now than it had in the past, but it can't make the games for them! Developers are paying attention to the Wii because it's the big thing now, but a lot of them are half-assing it or dumbing the games down, thinking anything they put out will sell. Thank goodness for Nintendo's games is what I say...

...but, Nintendo can only give us the same thing over and over again for so long - the new control methods are a way to prolong it, but it's only a matter of time. Phantom Hourglass is a good example: I think it's a fantastic game, and even though it follows the Zelda formula, you don't really think about it, you just go along and enjoy the game. But, I don't know how I would feel if a follow up game was almost the same.

Twilight Princess is another story though. It had a lot of good things going for it, but it just ended up being too bland, sticking so closely to the Zelda formula, and lacking the character that Majora's Mask and Wind Waker had. To be fair I haven't played the Wii version, but I doubt that would make much difference.

Still, Zelda, Mario, Metroid, etc have held up a lot better than any other franchises. I think it'd be hard to name any other franchise that has put out consistently good games.

russadwan wrote:I doubt the wii is just going to end up as gamecube 2.0. It's sold better than the PS3 and the Xbox 360. Just watch and you'll see. (If the wii sales go down a lot, please nobody quote that.)

Read the first post. Wii sales have been way down in Japan, compared to what they have been.

Have you ever heard of market saturation? I hate to come off as a fanboy but one month of slow sales at the end of nearly a year of very strong sales is not exactly cause for alarm. Two or three months of continued decline yes, but you need more than one data point to start using words like "dwindling".

Honestly it amazes me how every few months the same people get really excited and post about how Wii is gimmicky and they aren't going to get one and it's going to be in 3rd place. Every time I point out that Nintendo themselves claim their market strategy this round is "make profit", not "defeat competition". Despite the fact that, according to these people, there are no games to play on the Wii or anything good that is released is just gimmicky and not fun after a while, the system is selling like crazy. When Sony was getting called out for making wild claims about lack of stock in the face of photographic evidence of units collecting dust on shelves, stores had several-month-long waiting lists for Wii consoles. XBox 360 can be excused for having ample units on the shelf because it was about a year old at the time; by then it is reasonable to say that everyone who wanted one had one, which is likely what's starting to happen with the Wii now.

What is really going on here is a shift in gaming. There are really two big movements in the industry right now, and Nintendo is only following one of them. The two movements are something I touched upon in really long post a long time ago but it still applies: jock gamers and classic gamers. There's a pretty solid polarization of opinions on the Wii based on how one is aligned. I often see cited the fact that the Wii has no Halo 3, no Gran Turismo 4500, or whatever stupid license someone is looking to play. That's great, but "it doesn't have this one game I want" doesn't really lead to "that console is going to fail".

Nintendo is going to have a hard time getting good 3rd party titles because of their hardware. I don't believe this is uncommon though; there are a lot of factors coming together and I'm just not seeing as many ports as usual unless it's a fairly simple game based on some engine that's already been ported. I think development on each console is different enough that it's not really possible to code in a generic manner and target all three. I think something that complicates this issue is the general complexity that is expected of a "good" jock game these days. I mean, I'm impressed with the complex pipe networks on the walls of Doom 3, and the level of detail that goes into some of these games blows my mind, but keep in mind that to put a complex 3D system on a wall takes significantly longer than it takes to make a bitmap texture that is applied to a flat wall. Now, imagine if after doing 2 or 3 times the work you used to do, you find out that now the number of polys has to be reduced to work on this or that other system. Do you redo the work, or do you just decide to be console exclusive? It seems many developers are going console exclusive.

Want game quality to increase? Give up some graphical detail so the years of development time can be spent on the game instead of making sure the light bulb explodes accurately when you shoot it.

Honestly I am not concerned about the 3rd party titles that are not coming to the Wii. I'm playing a few games right now, and I've got a queue of games I'd like to replay that can last me until about 2009. The only expectation I have out of the Wii is that if I feed it $50 I should get a week or two of really good entertainment out of it, and so far it has not failed to deliver on this expectation. I think a lot of you have lost sight of the fact that a console doesn't have to be a constant source of entertainment to be successful.

My Wii hasn't been turned on since I finished MP3. There's a few games I'd like to buy, but I have a wedding coming up soon and I'd like to hold on to my 50 bucks right now. I'm preparing for guitar hero 3 and Mario Galaxy and honestly I don't care how many units Nintendo is selling because all I care about is if I'm having fun when I play the Wii. I think it's silly to watch the ratio of "time spent playing Wii" to "time spent doing other things" and consider that a metric for success.

I do appreciate the fact that when Nintendo releases a game for the Wii, it's good. I just... The thing is, none of the faults of the Wii can be pinned to the hardware. Sure, it's not as powerful, but it's definitely demonstrated that it can deliver good games. The controls, too, have been shown to be very effective when used correctly, so it's not as if this motion-control business was a mistake.

There just doesn't seem to be any direction. Third-party companies seem as if either they don't know or don't care how to most effectively use the Wii. *shrug* And I have no idea how that's going to change. Because the thing is, so long as Nintendo keeps "showing the way" by making spectacular games, the only thing third party companies will take home is that they can't compete with Nintendo.

I've actually had to write and rewrite this post several times. I know that there is an interesting and unique reply I can add to this, but whatever I say seems to be both immensely profound, yet at the same time, incredibly obviously stupid. o.o'

What exactly should I be posting with here? Should I care? Are there benefits to caring or not caring? What if I just said that as long as Galaxy and Brawl come out, my reasons for getting the Wii are justified? (Considering that Brawl *IS* the only reason I got a Wii in the first place.)

I suppose that'd make me a hardcore SSB/M/B player, rather than a ... well ... Console player/gamer. I have very, very heavy roots with the PC, but no Smash (Save for Online original Smash.) is on it. As long as the PC fares well, my needs are virtually satisfied. When my computer becomes outdated and obsolete, I will either have to get a (Hopefully not too costly) new one or upgrade, or will have to consider investing in a console aside from the Wii which I already possess to sate my gaming urges.

Also Nintendo's market value is 3rd largest in Japan. Only Mitsubishi and Toyota are bigger. (source)

I see a lot of comments that their gaming is all fads and is starting to lose quality, but the fun I've had and the market seem to disagree 😊

Also I think ShadowTiger's views are the most rational here. Who cares if the box is a fad if you are having fun with it? In a way, the SNES was just a fad; as soon as Sony's joybox arrived it was abandoned, and it took 2d games (which were becoming an art form) with it. It took years before the quality of 3d games started to approach that of the most acclaimed 2d games. Bitter? Yeah you could say so.

Same thing with the PS2. By now it's probably provided me about 1/2 as many hours as I have spent on the SNES, but who cares about PS2 these days? 3 years from now, none of you are going to be playing Xbox 360 or PS3. Just sayin.

AtmaWeapon wrote:Same thing with the PS2. By now it's probably provided me about 1/2 as many hours as I have spent on the SNES, but who cares about PS2 these days? 3 years from now, none of you are going to be playing Xbox 360 or PS3. Just sayin.

Slightly off topic, but I don't buy this. Japan sales for last month:

PSP	102,809	1,861,320
Nintendo DS Lite	72,895	5,487,649
Wii	24,143	2,694,454
PlayStation 3	13,105	712,108
PlayStation 2	12,980	596,915
Xbox 360	5,215	150,789
GameBoy Micro	229	26,485
GameCube	73	9,785
GameBoy Advance SP	49	20,723
GameBoy Advance	41	968
Nintendo DS	30	2,816

For a console that's over 7 years old, selling only 1,000 units behind the current generation counterpart and half of the generation leader is pretty damn good. Also, how long has the fucking DS Lite and PSP been out, and they're still selling like hotcakes.

And I don't see how worrying about the console I bought having good games isn't a valid concern. I wasn't really expecting Halo 3, but I was expecting a little more decent third party action than it has now, considering how capable Nintendo has proven the Wii to be.

Well I argued pretty strongly in favor of good games being a part of the experience, if you'll remember I seemed to take offense to the "lagging sales" spelling doom for the Wii. Despite the apparent lack of games for the console, it seems like it's still selling very strongly.

By now, I'd say word of mouth is a motivator for buying the thing. If it wasn't fun, people would be warning their friends to not buy into the hype. Instead, people chill at each other's house and have a blast even when playing the mini-games that came with the system, and the effect is viral. Invite 3 friends over, play Wii bowling or carnival games or something, oops 3 Wiis just got sold. They invite 3 friends over...

The same thing would happen for Halo but its target audience is too busy getting drunk to remember why they had such a good time at the party... there was Halo but I bet it was the alcohol we better get more of that! (Actually I think the XBox 360 is old enough that game sales rather than system sales are a better metric for its popularity. There's a troll about how the first run was defective and everyone had to buy a new one there but I'm not going to make it. Oops!)

I really hate how defensive these posts make me sound. Honestly every game on the Wii has followed the same cycle of play>win>shelf when I played it. The unit sits idle until the next game I buy is delivered. However, since I am extremely careful about what games I pick, when I do part with my precious gold I often find that the entertainment value I derive from the game is well worth the investment. It's hard for me to buy into a sky is falling mentality for three reasons:

• I don't follow gaming news unless something makes this site or some of the news sites I read or a friend deliberately notifies me of an upcoming release.
• Guitar Hero 3 is going to be on the Wii and I am really stoked because Guitar Hero 2 is responsible for almost as many PS2 hours as Katamari Damacy.
• Super Mario Galaxy
• Super Smash Bros. Brawl

*edit* Guys should I buy Super Paper Mario or save the $50 for my upcoming honeymoon?

AtmaWeapon wrote:
It's hard for me to buy into a sky is falling mentality for three reasons:

• I don't follow gaming news unless something makes this site or some of the news sites I read or a friend deliberately notifies me of an upcoming release.
• Guitar Hero 3 is going to be on the Wii and I am really stoked because Guitar Hero 2 is responsible for almost as many PS2 hours as Katamari Damacy.
• Super Mario Galaxy
• Super Smash Bros. Brawl

You should really learn to count, it'll add more merit to your posts...
😃

The same thing would happen for Halo but its target audience is too busy getting drunk to remember why they had such a good time at the party... there was Halo but I bet it was the alcohol we better get more of that! (Actually I think the XBox 360 is old enough that game sales rather than system sales are a better metric for its popularity. There's a troll about how the first run was defective and everyone had to buy a new one there but I'm not going to make it. Oops!)

I'm more worried about defective units. That's the one thing preventing me from buying the 360. It has a ton of good games and seems to get the best of the multiplatform ports, but I'm not going to invest $400 in a console that has the potential to become a paperweight in six months. Still, Halo 3 had the biggest opening week of any form of entertainment, ever, even bigger than Spider Man 3, so that's still nothing to scoff at.

And for the record, I've been to Halo parties before, the ones held by nerds in the basement of a dorm as opposed to frat boys and beer, and it actually is tons of fun. At its height, I remember looking over the entire room's worth of players and seeing two full 4v4 games going at the same time, and more people waiting for the next round to play, which kind of blew me away at the time.

*edit* Guys should I buy Super Paper Mario or save the $50 for my upcoming honeymoon?

I'm not into the whole Paper Mario thing, but I have friends who play it pretty much constantly. However, from what I hear, unless you count the 100 level challenge dungeon (which is what my friends are stuck on), the game itself is actually rather short and easy.

AlexMax wrote:I'm not into the whole Paper Mario thing, but I have friends who play it pretty much constantly. However, from what I hear, unless you count the 100 level challenge dungeon (which is what my friends are stuck on), the game itself is actually rather short and easy.

Super Paper Mario is a good game, but yeah, it's short and easy and just not as fun as the other two Paper Mario games. I'd recommend getting the other two first if you haven't played them already (Paper Mario for N64 is on the VC. I got it that way and it plays great)

Another fud article in the gaming industry. This is me dying of shock: ...

Uhhh yeah about the counting....

It was originally two, but then I remembered the mario game so I changed it to three. Then, I remembered brawl but forgot to update the number. Oops.

Also yeah I know Halo did really well but I just don't like the game and I am going to make fun of it as long as that is true. I feel like by now the series has the same kind of power as a Zelda, Final Fantasy, or Street Fighter release and it is going to sell x units whether they advertise or not. Personally I find it to be an extremely bland game and I'm sorry that the genre has to put up with it.

vegeta1215 wrote:It will be a passing fad if game developers don't make some decent games.

Quoted for truth. The wii is an amazing system, and we need some amazing games.

I think Super mario galaxy and SSBB's degree of success will directly emulate the entire rest of the system.
I don't know. We'll see, huh? I still really really really really want one, but mostly for brawl. TP was so unexciting that I couldn't even really play through it. and I won't even get started on PH. Uhg. anyhow, I'm off topic hardcore.

I guess we'll see?

I really wouldn't count Twilight Princess as a Wii game - it's a Gamecube game with tacked on Wii controls. It wasn't designed with the Wii in mind, not like MP3 was.

At first MP3 really made me doubt the future of the Wii because it just felt weird and I couldn't get used to the controls. But after about an hour or two I really got used to it, and I think it works really well. I read everywhere to use the "Advanced" setting, but it is far too sensitive for me, at least on my little TV (maybe it's different on a bigger tv). After sticking with the "Standard" setting and disabling free aim/lock-on, everything just fell into place.

I'm still pretending MP3 doesn't exist yet. I want to play it so bad...

Honestly MP3 is probably the first Wii game I've played that came close to using the controls properly. It still kind of hacks me off that they made Link right handed to make it "more natural" but all I ended up doing was randomly swinging the controller anyway.

I bought an xbox 360 and a wii. Together, there's an excellent variety of games to play. If you're looking into buying a nex-gen console to play, I recommend saving up for both.

Alex, I have owned pretty much every system in the last 15 years, and I currently have a 360 and Wii. I barely play my 360, despite the fact that I have countless arcade games, a few 360 games and many, many xbox ones. I play my Wii just about every day. It has so much to offer: Wii remote games, niche games that use any controller (mlb power pros, ssbb), all the VC games, even old GC games that were underappreciated. Halo is a joke of a game, just like Madden, that all the jock nerds love because its "cool" and features guns and loud noises. The Wii already is getting games like MLB Power Pros, a series 15 years old and finally released stateside, and it is the best baseball game ever made, go out and buy it if you don't have it already. Japanese gaming companies still are the cream of the crop, and they are really focusing on the Wii (and the DS) into the next year. Just a few games in the Wii lineup for holiday season:

Super Mario Galaxy
Nights
Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles
Zack & Wiki
Mario & Sonic At The Olympics
Harvey Birdman
Link's Crossbow Training
Ghost Squad
Victorious Boxers
Fire Emblem
Manhunt 2
Soul Calibur Legends
Endless Ocean (might be pushed back)

None of these are cheap remakes or quick money franchises, I purposely left out GH3 MOH, etc as well as EA playground and other quick money games.

The Wii continues to be SOLD OUT in every store in the greater Philadelphia area! 5th biggest market in the country! I know this because friends, co-workers continue to look for one to no avail. Everybody I know still talks about it, gamers and no-gamers. The huge amount of games this holiday season is just going to bolster the image. Its going to be integrated into the framework of the average american's household. Just like the NES was before it. Just because the uberhardcore audience doesn't like it doesn't mean it won't be successful.

Breaker wrote:I bought an xbox 360 and a wii. Together, there's an excellent variety of games to play. If you're looking into buying a nex-gen console to play, I recommend saving up for both.

I would like to save up for a 360, but I'd like to see some sign that they're getting more stable first. Plus, more systems == more money I want to spend on games a month, and I simply don't really have the money for more than one or two games a month, if that.

Though you do bring up a thought in my head, I might consider selling my Wii at a profit and using the money to buy a 360, since I know two friends with Wii's, and they're going to be buying and playing the fuck out of Smash anyway, so it's not like I'm going to be missing out. e: Checked ebay, I don't think I would be making a profit if I did sell it.

mattwdr wrote:Alex, I have owned pretty much every system in the last 15 years, and I currently have a 360 and Wii.

"TRUST ME ON THIS GUYS, I PLAY GAMES FOR A LIVING"

I barely play my 360, despite the fact that I have countless arcade games, a few 360 games and many, many xbox ones. I play my Wii just about every day. It has so much to offer: Wii remote games, niche games that use any controller (mlb power pros, ssbb), all the VC games, even old GC games that were underappreciated.

What exactly do you play on your Wii on a day in day out basis?

Halo is a joke of a game, just like Madden, that all the jock nerds love because its "cool" and features guns and loud noises.

Halo is a good game. It may not be a game that you like, but it's an extremely polished shooter with well thought out mechanics and great multiplayer to boot.

The Wii already is getting games like MLB Power Pros, a series 15 years old and finally released stateside, and it is the best baseball game ever made, go out and buy it if you don't have it already. Japanese gaming companies still are the cream of the crop,

"GLORIOUS NIPPON GAMES ARE BETTER THAN DIRTY GANJIN GAMES FROM UNITED STATES"

and they are really focusing on the Wii (and the DS) into the next year. Just a few games in the Wii lineup for holiday season:

Super Mario Galaxy: OK I'm genuinely excited about this one.
Nights: Ditto, but this is modern Sonic Team we're talking about here so I don't really have high hopes.
Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles: Not really sure what to expect, I'm sure it'll be a good game but I'm not sure if it's worth picking up on release day.
Zack & Wiki: What the hell is this?
Mario & Sonic At The Olympics: What makes this different from every other Olympic cash in? By the way, if you want Mario and Sonic in the same game, SSBB is coming next year.
Harvey Birdman: Unless it has Mentok, Reducto and Phil Ken Seben (all voiced by Stephen Colbert), forget about it.
Link's Crossbow Training: Duck Hunt with a Zelda Cash-in. It comes with the Wii Zapper though, which brings us to...
Ghost Squad: Hrm, I'm actually a fan of arcade shooters on consoles (Time Crisis 2 woot), and this one might be interesting. I don't know about 49 dollar interesting though.
Victorious Boxers: What the hell is this?
Fire Emblem: Oh hey, the most annoying tatical RPG ever comes back for yet another sequel? Sign me up!
Manhunt 2: Ooooooh, me likey.
Soul Calibur Legends: I've seen videos of this in action and it looks awkward as hell. Will believe it when I read reviews of it.
Endless Ocean (might be pushed back): What the hell is this?

Comments posted beside the games in question. And honestly, how many of those do you honestly expect to sell that many copies? If you look at software sales charts, Nintendo games tend to be the only Wii games that reach any meaningful positions on them, with a nice spread of third party games on the other platforms.

None of these are cheap remakes or quick money franchises, I purposely left out GH3 MOH, etc as well as EA playground and other quick money games.

The Wii continues to be SOLD OUT in every store in the greater Philadelphia area! 5th biggest market in the country! I know this because friends, co-workers continue to look for one to no avail. Everybody I know still talks about it, gamers and no-gamers. The huge amount of games this holiday season is just going to bolster the image. Its going to be integrated into the framework of the average american's household. Just like the NES was before it. Just because the uberhardcore audience doesn't like it doesn't mean it won't be successful.

Of course it won't. Bubbles generally don't reveal themselves to the unobservant until it's too late. In a country that is not as supply constrained like Japan, it has shown a couple of consecutive months of slowing down. And it's apparently a real enough concern that those developers from GLORIOUS NIPPON aren't investing as many resources in Wii games as they could be, after being burned on a poor third party support in the first round of games, see Nintendo's domination of Wii sales charts as stated earlier.

AlexMax wrote:I would like to save up for a 360, but I'd like to see some sign that they're getting more stable first.

You've got a 3 year warrenty now. Just take the plunge :P