Does this sound right to you guys? (PS3 takeover is inevitable)

[AtmaWeapon]

http://uk.gamespot.com/news/6156046.html?sid=6156046&part=rss&tag=gs_news&subj=6156046

Ok the article is lots of words so here's the bullet points I find odd:
In 2011, when all three current consoles are just reaching maturity, PS3 will be the clear winner. Manufacturing of PS3s has not started yet. As of yet, no launch titles are confirmed, despite some developers' claims their games will be launch titles.

OK the first bullet point was the one that makes me :confused:. 2011? Who is this Yankee Group and how long have they been studying the video game industry? The XBox 360 and the Wii will be more than 5 years old at that point, yet they won't have reached maturity yet? What's to say there won't be hardware successors to either console in 5 years? It seems really odd to me, but maybe someone else can explain?

I also find it more odd that PS3s are still not in manufacturing and launch titles are still not confirmed. Perhaps this 2011 estimate is based on a PS3 launch in 2008?

[Aegix Drakan]

*credibility for gamespot has finally his rock bottom

2011? riiiiiight. If the PS3 is not in manufacturing yet, it's in big trouble. I also hear that Sony is pushing the notion that "the PS3 is not a gaming device. it is a computer that just happens to be able to play games"

all this arcticle is, is a bunch of sony fanboys blinded to the fact that the PS3 is not going to be a big hit.

[Warlock]

Reminds me of IGN's "Is Sony in Trouble?" roundtable. They go back in forth about all these problems and then end it with "Well yeah, but I know Sony will still pull out number #1 and they will be just fine." Talk about your blind fanboys.

[Saffith]

It's hard to take anything they say seriously at this point.
I wonder what they'll be saying when their predictions don't come true and PS3's the biggest flop since the Jaguar. I can't imagine they'll suddenly become humble about it. I'm thinking more like John Romero after Daikatana.


*credibility for gamespot has finally his rock bottom

all this arcticle is, is a bunch of sony fanboys blinded to the fact that the PS3 is not going to be a big hit.Gamespot's not the one making these claims. They're quoting someone else.

[Warlock]

It's hard to take anything they say seriously at this point.
I wonder what they'll be saying when their predictions don't come true and PS3's the biggest flop since the Jaguar. I can't imagine they'll suddenly become humble about it. I'm thinking more like John Romero after Daikatana.

Gamespot's not the one making these claims. They're quoting someone else.

That won't happen. Sony has too big of a name. PS3 will do *ok* but it will *not* be #1 this time. I would compare it to N64 (being PS3) vs. PSX (being Xbox 360/Wii)

[Cloral]

The report assumes, btw, that the PS3 is appreciably more powerful than the 360. As best as I can tell, this just isn't the case.
Also, 16% market share on the Wii? Considering the hype around it right now, that seems too low.

[Saffith]

That won't happen. Sony has too big of a name. PS3 will do *ok* but it will *not* be #1 this time. I would compare it to N64 (being PS3) vs. PSX (being Xbox 360/Wii)Well, I'm exaggerating a bit, yeah. But, in any case, I can't imagine PS3 living up to Sony's hype as it is, and they're still adding more.
PS3 may do all right, but I expect practically nothing compared to what Sony's been saying will happen.


The report assumes, btw, that the PS3 is appreciably more powerful than the 360. As best as I can tell, this just isn't the case.Are you saying that based on the same information the rest of us see, or is that from working with them as a developer?

[ZTC]

As I've said before, I hope the PS3 dies a pitiful death...

[MottZilla]

The report assumes, btw, that the PS3 is appreciably more powerful than the 360. As best as I can tell, this just isn't the case.
Also, 16% market share on the Wii? Considering the hype around it right now, that seems too low.

I know man. The only thing I can see where PS3 has a true advantage is the Blu-Ray disc storage space, probably making it ideal for lengthy stream heavy RPGs. Otherwise they are both very capable I'm sure. It's just not some knock out by PS3, it's not more powerful to the point that 360 looks bad at all. Which brings me back to this, you can have the same great games on 360 or PS3. But 360 costs less. And it has good development tools cause they're M$ ofcourse. Last I heard PS3 wasn't so nice.

Anyway it seems to me the PS3 is overly complex with no good reason. People keep expecting that when PS3 comes out it'll make 360 look old or something. That's just not the case.

Anyone that still thinks that Sony will win #1 no matter what is a fool. This go around Microsoft and Nintendo are both far better suited than last time to get bigger market share. And you should also realize right now Microsoft has 100% of the next gen market and is building their lead every day. I mean really, people are expecting Sony to have a magic bullet and win. Sony may not even be able to produce as many PS3s as demanded for a long time. And when people want a new system, if they can't get PS3, they may get 360 which is far more available due to their lead time. So ya it is pure fanboy to just say Sony will be #1 again. It's more complex than that.

[Cloral]

Are you saying that based on the same information the rest of us see, or is that from working with them as a developer?
Mostly based on what analysts who have tried to make sense of the specs have said. Nobody's seen the actual hardware as it doesn't yet exist.

[AtmaWeapon]

I was in a hurry to post this because it was closer to class than I thought, but I got my core points in and I'm glad to see they were good enough to spawn discussion.

I didn't want to seem biased against the PS3 but it just seems mind-boggling to me that with 2 months to go and no units produced, this group feels like Sony is set up for a big win. How can developers test their games on production units when said units don't exist? Sure, you can test your stuff on SDK units, but any developer worth his keyboard knows that the development environment tends to have configuration differences, and such differences tend to lead to subtle bugs that do not appear until the system is tested on a production system. Furthermore, games are becoming more and more complex; assuming they start churning out units before the end of the month and send a few to all major developers I don't believe a 2 month window provides a lot of time for a sound QA analysis (worst case scenario is that bugs will surface, but are hardware issues that need to be corrected, thus inacting upgrades to all test machines before testing can continue. Sony's not exactly known for a perfect version 1.0 of anything).

The analysis of the market seems to show a total lack of understanding of the long-term strategies of the three manufacturers. The environment the report is based on is likely a model where 3 companies all want to have the entire pie. This model has been the industry for as long as I can remember (though it used to be only Nintendo and Sega as the serious contenders). However, this generation shows a different market: 2 companies that want the whole pie and a third company that is content to make a profit while using its resources to influence the market.

Sony and Microsoft want each others' throats; this is obvious. Nintendo's strategy (from what I have seen in interviews) is much more subtle. Rather than "Don't buy that XBox 360, get a Wii instead!", Nintendo's call is "Hey, don't you think it'd be nice to have a Wii AND an XBox 360?". Because of this, I believe Nintendo's market share will indeed be significantly lower than Microsoft's or Sony's, but the Wii will by no means be insignificant.

Motzilla made some interesting points I will go over:


I know man. The only thing I can see where PS3 has a true advantage is the Blu-Ray disc storage space, probably making it ideal for lengthy stream heavy RPGs. Otherwise they are both very capable I'm sure. This is one of the more interesting features of the PS3 to me; both Sony and Microsoft have agendas and the disc format each supports is part of that. Microsoft has announced there will be an external HD-DVD player for the XBox 360, but it's unclear whether this will be able to deliver game content. However, it won't be impossible to use your XBox 360 as a next-gen DVD player.


But 360 costs less. And it has good development tools cause they're M$ (sic) ofcourse. Last I heard PS3 wasn't so nice.

Anyway it seems to me the PS3 is overly complex with no good reason. This is definitely what I'm hearing at a lot of news sites. I remember, in particular, one Sony conference where they were announcing some manner of development information about the PS3 and the highlight of the article I read was a slide that displayed the relative speeds of the various memory busses on the PS3. I didn't understand the acronyms involved but I did understand the particular detail that was causing a stir: a figure that involved "KB/s" whereas every other bus involved "GB/s". That's a pretty big difference in speeds, and Sony was cheerfully proposing some kind of crazy workaround like "not using that data bus" to developers. Maybe someone can dig this up for me and correct me if I'm making any errors, but I spent a few minutes digging through the site where I saw it and couldn't get a hit. Maybe I should search woman for article (http://www.armageddongames.net/showthread.php?t=93024) instead of searching Google or using the site's search engine.



Anyone that still thinks that Sony will win #1 no matter what is a fool. This go around Microsoft and Nintendo are both far better suited than last time to get bigger market share. And you should also realize right now Microsoft has 100% of the next gen market and is building their lead every day. I mean really, people are expecting Sony to have a magic bullet and win. Sony may not even be able to produce as many PS3s as demanded for a long time. And when people want a new system, if they can't get PS3, they may get 360 which is far more available due to their lead time. So ya it is pure fanboy to just say Sony will be #1 again. It's more complex than that.And yeah this is a point I stand by too. Sony is going to have to be able to produce holograms or a machine that can give you an orgasm to overcome a few simple facts about the market at the time of their launch: Microsoft has the only functional next-gen console out Microsoft has a year-long head start PS3 is more expensive than XBox 360 PS3 has no confirmed (let alone compelling) launch titles
It's almost like Sony's looking for a big loss so they can get out of the industry for good; every press release I read is another nail in the coffin.

[Warlock]

You know I'm starting to think the "late start" may actually be strategy. Think of it like this. $600 is high, but how much were people paying for PS2s and Xbox 360s once those systems sold out? Sony could be "planning" to have a low supply to create the whole "it's so great it's sold out" buzz they had with PS2. Given some of their comments, I would *not* put that past them.

Of course, the thing about those two consoles is that they were first. Like Mott said - No PS3? Get an Xbox 360 for cheaper. But then again, I'm not sure Sony is smart enough to realize that (they have sort of a "they can do no wrong" complex going on)

Edit:


However, this generation shows a different market: 2 companies that want the whole pie and a third company that is content to make a profit while using its resources to influence the market.

Sony and Microsoft want each others' throats; this is obvious. Nintendo's strategy (from what I have seen in interviews) is much more subtle. Rather than "Don't buy that XBox 360, get a Wii instead!", Nintendo's call is "Hey, don't you think it'd be nice to have a Wii AND an XBox 360?". Because of this, I believe Nintendo's market share will indeed be significantly lower than Microsoft's or Sony's, but the Wii will by no means be insignificant.

Don't be fooled, Nintendo does want that whole pie. They just know they have no chance of getting it. So they are playing up this angle instead. But the price difference (and there is a huge one this time) will definately have some people getting Wiis over anything else.


This is one of the more interesting features of the PS3 to me; both Sony and Microsoft have agendas and the disc format each supports is part of that. Microsoft has announced there will be an external HD-DVD player for the XBox 360, but it's unclear whether this will be able to deliver game content. However, it won't be impossible to use your XBox 360 as a next-gen DVD player.

The thing about that though - I have a big screen HD TV. I also have a DVD player with upconvert to run my dvds at 1080i. And they look freaking fantastic. I don't care what Blu-ray brings to the table, I honestly do not see it being that huge of a step up. Besides which, it's the same problem as UMDs. People do not want to have 50 different copies of a movie. You buy that Blu-ray movie and suddenly it's only good on that one player. You are really gambling on the blu-ray format taking off in the future too. If not, 5 years down the line you have a nice $30 coaster (unless you want to keep your PS3 hooked up indefinately).

[Orion]

I think their line of thinking is this: by 2011, the hardware will be a lot cheaper, developers will be a lot more familiar with the software, more people will have HD televisions, and Blu-Ray might be more mainstream. I think they could be onto something to, by that point, the PS3 will be a fine piece of hardware. They aren't going ot lose *THAT* much support. And while I think Nintendo is still the smarter one here, it's stupid to sit here and talk about Sony's demise when the console hasn't even launched yet.

[MottZilla]

I question that they think at all. I think they just see the word Playstation and the fanboy tumors in their brains take over.

And Nintendo DOESN'T want you to buy a Wii and a 360 or PS3. They want you to buy a Wii and alot of software.

[Grasshopper]

This is the president of Sony. I don't think I'd expect anything different. Its like asking Reggie Fils-Amie if he likes Nintendo, Sony, or Microsoft better. Whether it comes true of not, you know a president is going to back his own company.

Late to the conversation, so this probably only applied to the first batch of posts.

[goKi]

PS3 will finish second overall. Quite simply because the Wii is poised to dominate the market, and the PS3 will definately outsell the 360 in Japan.

[AtmaWeapon]

This is the president of Sony. I don't think I'd expect anything different. Its like asking Reggie Fils-Amie if he likes Nintendo, Sony, or Microsoft better. Whether it comes true of not, you know a president is going to back his own company.

Late to the conversation, so this probably only applied to the first batch of posts.

Ahhh young Grasshopper, your training is not complete. Only ones who read the article to an appropriate extent may participate in this thread. The announcement of the impending failure of the other consoles came from a research group, and Hirai was merely interviewed about the announcement.

Of course Hirai was pleased to announce that (not a real quote):
"Despite the fact that we have no games or manufactured units, in two months' time we will release the PS3. It is sure that in 5 years no startling hardware innovations will occur that will render this system obsolete. Furthermore, it will be a trivial task to overcome the market presence of a competitor who users have been playing for a year that is cheaper and has very similar features to our device. We're Sony, why would anyone buy something else?"

[Grasshopper]

Oh well, you're right, I didn't read the article, I only skimmed it. I did get the jist of everything, and thats all that matters to me. I just failed to read that the data came from an analyst group. He doesn't really object to anything they said though, and even goes to say it was a good report. :shrug:

[MottZilla]

PS3 will finish second overall. Quite simply because the Wii is poised to dominate the market, and the PS3 will definately outsell the 360 in Japan.

Japan is a far less important market to dominate than North America. Infact I wouldn't be surprised if Europe is already or getting closer to becoming a bigger market than Japan. I think the 360 is just slow to start in Japan because of the lack of japanese developers taking the chance. They rather wait till it takes off in Japan, but it can't because they didn't make any games for it which brinsg us back to them not taking the chance. Oh well. To be honest I don't remember the Japanese developers being important for along time now. I mean you have Capcom (Capcom of USA has bounced back with Dead Rising too), Konami, Square. Uh, is there anyone else?

[Orion]

I like how I make one of the few posts that doesn't completely trash Sony, and it completely gets ignored :P As much as I love the Wii, I reeeeeeally don't think it's gunna take Nintendo from last place to suddenly dominating the market. I hope I'm wrong. But I think I'm right.

[AtmaWeapon]

I like how I make one of the few posts that doesn't completely trash Sony, and it completely gets ignored :P As much as I love the Wii, I reeeeeeally don't think it's gunna take Nintendo from last place to suddenly dominating the market. I hope I'm wrong. But I think I'm right.Oh I agree you are most definitely right. Wii is going to be Nintendo's best system yet in my opinion from what I have seen, but it's not going to have what it will take to pull dominance out of Microsoft's or Sony's grip.

That would take pretty much a full change in Nintendo's marketing strategy and I don't forsee that in the near future.