Nowhere to go but down?

[cap2030]

http://www.fortune.com/fortune/technology/articles/0,15114,480222,00.html

while this article writes about the success of the video games market. I see this article as something which can cause a crash in the video game market.

more people are trying to get into the video game business but they're simply not enough consumers to sustain them all.

I doubt that video games will ever go away,but the fact that cnn is now writing an article stating that games make more profits than any other entertainment industry on the basis of one company rather than the industry as a whole makes me think that video games will end up like .com's ended up.

what do you guys think?

[AlexMax]

This wouldn't be the first time it happened? Anyone remember the Videogame crash of 83-84?

Although I do think that it won't be that bad. After all, there are a lot of good games coming out on all three major consoles.

[cap2030]

I had forgotten about that crash.

But I see some similar connections between that crash and what I see happening today.

Now a days the console makers are approving games that clearly arent finished. Games like Enter the matrix and the latest tomb raider are examples of unfinished games being released in order to make large amounts of profits.

In the case of the matrix game it worked.
People rushed out and bought the game immediately which accounted for 1 million sales as I remember(not sure).

The game made plenty of money so they are going to keep doing it again and again,but eventually they will train us not to buy games until reviews are in
and they're positive.

This will lead to lower sales which means lower profits which is gonna hurt
small time investors who read articles like the one I posted above and lose everything they have.

Another thing I see is the degradation of MMO's.

games like everquest charge $15 dollars a month. the companies base that expense on the changes they make to the game "constantly" and the way they keep updating it. Yet these companies end up releasing expansion packs which add more game play to the game. Havent the players already payed for these updates and changes with their $15 a month?
Whats worse is that people buy these expansions instead of complaining to the companies.

I saw an article at gamespot that says everquest has 430,000 subscribers to date .

430,000 x $15 =just under $5 million a month.

you toss these numbers at investors and they salivate to invest.
Eventually people will catch up to the fact that they're getting screwed and stop subscribing.

Now these companies arent making money and stock prices will drop screwing investors.

[stormwatcheagle]

Originally posted by AlexMax
This wouldn't be the first time it happened? Anyone remember the Videogame crash of 83-84?

Although I do think that it won't be that bad. After all, there are a lot of good games coming out on all three major consoles.

Fraid not, I was -4 at the time. Could you sum it up for me?

[War Lord]

Originally posted by cap2030
Another thing I see is the degradation of MMO's.

games like everquest charge $15 dollars a month. the companies base that expense on the changes they make to the game "constantly" and the way they keep updating it. Yet these companies end up releasing expansion packs which add more game play to the game. Havent the players already payed for these updates and changes with their $15 a month?
Whats worse is that people buy these expansions instead of complaining to the companies.

I saw an article at gamespot that says everquest has 430,000 subscribers to date .

430,000 x $15 =just under $5 million a month.

you toss these numbers at investors and they salivate to invest.
Eventually people will catch up to the fact that they're getting screwed and stop subscribing.

Now these companies arent making money and stock prices will drop screwing investors.

You have to pay for bandwidth and servers as well. Bandwidth isn't cheap. There is a lot of money being made on MMORPG's, however not as much as you make it out to be. After paying bandwidth, labor, servers, etc...

[Blonde799]

Yeah, I'm sure you would know about that, War Lord.....:laughing:

[War Lord]

I'm sure I do too, I've looked into the actual profits of such games since I played the realm.

[cap2030]

They arent making as much money as mentioned but media sites keep putting up numbers like that.
I'm worried that the video game market is gonna be over saturated. like it was in the 80's crash.

SWE:
Basically that crash was caused by an insane number of titles that we're released for the systems at that point.
Most of them we're crappy.There was no limitation on who could make software for the system back then so everyone jumped on the bandwagon trying to make it rich. no one bought the crappy games and most everyone lost their shirt.
I was trying to find a link for more detailed info but couldnt find one.

Warlord:
while bandwidth is very expensive,it's only expensive if your getting it from someone.

I find it hard to believe sony doesnt own any fiber optic cables accross this country. While they probabbly do pay for maintenance,and possibly get some bandwidth from someone it most likely doesnt cost them as much as the average person has to pay.

[Grasshopper]

What's the significance of mentioning this...

Those aren't just adolescent boys blasting Hell Knights on Doom or stealing stretch limos with Grand Theft Auto.
I wonder if anyone can have a serious talk about video game technology without mentioning something about Doom and GTA. I'm sure you guys know what I'm talking about.

[MottZilla]

You mean how too many people always try to make out video games as bad or something?

And I doubt the industry would actually crash again. I forget what year it was, but Sony wouldn't let Capcom, a very well known company, release Mega Man X3 for PSX in the US because they were only allowed to release a certain amount of games per year. So ya, I doubt if things get out of control that Sony, MS, and Nintendo wouldn't cut back on how many titles you could release a year.

[gdorf]

I had forgotten about that crash.

But I see some similar connections between that crash and what I see happening today.

Now a days the console makers are approving games that clearly arent finished. Games like Enter the matrix and the latest tomb raider are examples of unfinished games being released in order to make large amounts of profits.

In the case of the matrix game it worked.
People rushed out and bought the game immediately which accounted for 1 million sales as I remember(not sure).

The game made plenty of money so they are going to keep doing it again and again,but eventually they will train us not to buy games until reviews are in
and they're positive.

This will lead to lower sales which means lower profits which is gonna hurt
small time investors who read articles like the one I posted above and lose everything they have.

Another thing I see is the degradation of MMO's.

games like everquest charge $15 dollars a month. the companies base that expense on the changes they make to the game "constantly" and the way they keep updating it. Yet these companies end up releasing expansion packs which add more game play to the game. Havent the players already payed for these updates and changes with their $15 a month?
Whats worse is that people buy these expansions instead of complaining to the companies.

I saw an article at gamespot that says everquest has 430,000 subscribers to date .

430,000 x $15 =just under $5 million a month.

you toss these numbers at investors and they salivate to invest.
Eventually people will catch up to the fact that they're getting screwed and stop subscribing.

Now these companies arent making money and stock prices will drop screwing investors.

Have you ever built a group of servers for 430,000 people to play an interactive 3d game with each other? Do you have any idea how much that must cost to upkeep? And bandwidth, do you know how much that must cost?

Plus, even IF they were making a net gain of $5 million each month, it is a freaking company in america, that is what it is all about! Making money.

[Grasshopper]

Originally posted by Mottzilla
You mean how too many people always try to make out video games as bad or something?

Yep, pretty much. I mean, there is other games besides those. And haven't we heard enough of those two games already. Hey, I'm the typical adolescent boy who kills hell knights in my free time, and kills real people on other occasions. :rolleyes: I know thats what they're throwing off on.